DECODING THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

INTRODUCTION

Iranian development of nuclear technology began in the 1970s, when the U.S. Atoms for Peace program began providing assistance to Iran, which was then led by the Shah, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi. Iran signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1968 as a non-nuclear weapons state and ratified the NPT in 1970. The deal was intended to limit Tehran’s nuclear ability in return for lifting international oil trading and financial sanctions placed on the nation. It laid out a lengthy process spanning 15 to 25 years, to be supervised by an eight-member committee including Iran, the U.S., the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, China, and the European Union. The accord came after months of preparation and two weeks of final intensive discussions in Vienna. In May 2018, President Donald Trump cancelled the agreement and issued fresh sanctions against Iran. Whether it can ever be revived remains unknown as of 2023. The deal was negotiated between Iran and a group of counterparts that included the U.S., Russia, the U.K., Germany, France, China, and the European Union (EU). The supporters of the nuclear deal affirm its benefits, which include the best-possible guarantee from Iran that it will refrain from producing a nuclear arsenal. Yet, prior to the November 2013 interim agreement, Iran kept many activities out of the inspections process. For example, Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing and development work was not safeguarded after 2006, when Iran stopped implementation of its additional protocol. It was, at the time, an important step toward establishing peace in the Middle East region, particularly in the context of ISIS and the role of oil in Middle East economies.

WHO ARE THE PARTICIPANTS?

The JCPOA, which went into effect in January 2016, imposes restrictions on Iran’s civilian nuclear enrichment program. At the heart of negotiations with Iran were the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and Germany—collectively known as the P5+1. The European Union also took part. Some Middle Eastern powers, such as Saudi Arabia, said they should have been consulted or included in the talks because they would be most affected by a nuclear-armed Iran. Israel explicitly opposed the agreement, calling it too lenient.

UNDERSTANDING THE IRAN-NUCLEAR DEAL:

A. WHY THE NUCLEAR DEAL?

This deal removes the key elements needed to create a bomb and prolongs Iran’s breakout time from 2-3 months to 1 year or more if Iran broke its commitments. Importantly, Iran won’t garner any new sanctions relief until the IAEA confirms that Iran has followed through with its end of the deal. And should Iran violate any aspect of this deal, the U.N., U.S., and E.U. can snap the sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy back into place.

B. DOES IT PREVENT IRAN FROM GETTING NUCLEAR WEAPONS?

Many experts say that if all parties adhered to their pledges, the deal almost certainly could have achieved that goal for longer than a decade. Many of the JCPOA’s restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program have expiration dates. For example, after ten years (from January 2016), centrifuge restrictions will be lifted, and after fifteen years, so too will limits on the amount of low-enriched uranium Iran can possess. Some of the deal’s opponents faulted these so-called sunset provisions, saying they would only delay Iran building a bomb while sanctions relief would allow it to underwrite terrorism in the region.

The ministers of foreign affairs of France, Germany, the EU, Iran, the United Kingdom and the United States along with Chinese and Russian Diplomats announcing the agreement in 2015

C. AGREEMENTS MADE IN THE NUCLEAR DEAL

The following agreements were accepted by Iran and the P5+1:

• Iran agreed not to produce highly enriched uranium or plutonium, both key components of a nuclear weapon
• It agreed to ensure that its facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Arak would only be used for power generation, medical, industrial research or for any civilian work
• Iran eventually agreed to eventually implement a protocol that would allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency unrestricted access to its nuclear facilities. This access can also be applied to undeclared sites.
• A body known as the Joint Commission, which includes representatives of all the negotiating parties, monitors implementation of the agreement and resolves disputes that may arise.

Agreements accepted by the P5+1 and others

• The European Union, the UN and the United States committed to lifting sanctions on Iran. But some US sanctions dating back to 1979 remained in effect
• These sanctions were placed due to Iran’s support to terror groups, human rights abuses, and its ballistic missiles program.
• The parties involved also agreed to lift sanctions on a Weapons embargo provided the United Nations confirms through the IAEA that Iran is only engaged in civilian nuclear activities.

How is the Iran deal enforced?

If any signatory suspects Iran is violating the deal, the UN Security Council may vote on whether to continue sanctions relief. This “snapback” mechanism remains in effect for ten years, after which the UN sanctions are set to be permanently removed. In April 2020, the United States announced its intention to snap back sanctions. The other P5 members objected to the move, saying the United States could not unilaterally implement the mechanism because it left the nuclear deal in 2018.

WHY CAN’T THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL BE REVIVED?

Iran is locked in a vicious cycle that has cut it off from the international community, except for Russia.“The more Iran represses, the more there will be sanctions; the more there are sanctions, the more Iran feels isolated,” said Rob Malley, the US special envoy.

Does Iran Support Russia?

Russia has become Iran’s top trading partner since the reimposition of sanctions by the U.S. and Europe cut the nation off from most of its markets. Iran has supplied Russia with drones that were used in the assault on Ukraine. Admittedly, it has remained cagey about its role in Russia’s invasion. It admitted only in November 2022 that it had supplied Russia with drones but said that they were limited in number and were sent before the war. Iran is officially neutral on the war.

If the P5+1 are able to conclude a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran that is fully implemented,will they be justified in declaring victory in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons?

If the Supreme Leader accepts an agreement with the U.S. and the other members of the P5+1 – that is endorsed by the United National Security Council - Iran will be so firmly committed that it is very likely to comply for the period of the agreement. Over time, the benefits of an agreement will build a constituency in Iran who will oppose any nuclear backsliding that would jeopardise those benefits. Finally, the agreement could help foster political reform inside Iran and a more moderate foreign policy that will undercut the arguments of those Iranian factions who advocate acquisition of nuclear weapons.On the contrary,Iran’s ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons are deeply rooted in its strategic calculations and geopolitics. A nuclear agreement does not represent a strategic shift away from nuclear weapons, only a tactical decision to postpone those ambitions in order to get relief from international sanctions. Thus, even with an agreement in place, constant vigilance in monitoring, enhanced national intelligence, and maintaining a credible military option will be necessary for the foreseeable future.

WHERE DOES IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL STAND RIGHT NOW?

Then-President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the deal on the grounds that it failed to cut down Iran’s missile program or its influence on its neighbours. Iran responded by restarting its nuclear program. Early in his administration President Joe Biden and Iranian leaders both signalled a willingness to restart the original deal. However, recent events in Iran, including that nation’s support for Russia in its war against Ukraine, make a resumption of talks extremely unlikely as of late 2022.

WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK OF THE AGREEMENT?

The fate of the nuclear deal remains uncertain. JCPOA signatories began talks to bring Washington and Tehran back into the agreement in April 2021, but they’ve since been off and on, complicated by Iran’s election of conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi as president and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, among other developments. Moreover, Tehran and Washington still disagree on several issues, including the IRGC’s designation as a terrorist organisation. U.S. officials have warned against more delays, saying further nuclear advances by Iran could make returning to the original deal impossible. Amid reports that Iran was days away from enriching enough uranium for a bomb, President Joe Biden in July stated that the United States will use “all elements of its national power” to prevent the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon.